According to the planned land use Base Scenario , the CF in total was quantified as 6,, gha radius of This growth of CF could be linked with the possible impact of the increasing number of inhabitants from , to 1,, and the assumption that the living habits of the population would not change see Supplementary Material. The difference between BC and CF showed that an additional 5,, gha would be needed to sustain human impact if the planned studies were fully implemented.
If the human impact were to be compensated by green areas, it would require 4,, ha or 5,, ha if the restoration of biodiversity would be guaranteed. These values correspond to 2. Figure 8. The values and radiuses of CF and BC. The top part of the figure shows also the percentage change of CF the difference between the current state and Base Scenario. The bottom part of the figure shows the physical area needed to sustain ecological deficit assessed based on planned land use.
The results showed that the highest impact on CF reduction had the implementation of restricted environmental zones represented by good-quality soils as reserves for urban agriculture S. It could be seen in the results of CF in total obtained for Scenario No. Figure 9. The total area of forest land for CF assimilation and restoring biodiversity was assessed as 1,, ha for Scenario No.
The forest land assessed within other scenarios was quantified as ca. It means that the physical area needed for sustaining human impact of the suburban zone would represent ca. The values quantified for Scenario No. Figure The absolute values of physical natural areas required for sustaining total CF for a given municipality in a given scenario.
The lighter colors represent less physical natural areas needed for CF assimilation. The darker color shows more physical natural areas required for CF assimilation. There is a variety of solutions for human impact reduction, starting from managing and designing cities to be integrated and compact, planning spatial development within the natural capacity to maintain the overall material needs of society, decarbonization of the economy, changes in production, distribution and consumption of food moving to more local and more plant-based diet , and establishment of smaller families Rees and Moore, ; Wackernagel et al.
To be sustainable, mankind's activity must respect the ecological limitations of planet Earth. The ecological limits assessed with carrying capacity as the benchmark allowed to quantify the human impact and the level that could be sustained by the environment. Its application allows minimizing the risks of unsustainable production and consumption of humanity Clift et al. Otherwise, the population would still exceed the capacity of Earth and planetary boundaries.
As Clift et al. The lack of change in human activity raises concerns that further pressure on the earth system may lead to critical destabilization of biophysical systems and thus cause irreversible environmental changes that would be dangerous to human well-being.
Currently, there would be a required 1. The lifestyle of inhabitants of these areas could be similar to the lifestyle of inhabitants in countries as the Russian Federation 3. The analysis allowed for the evaluation of spatial policy and designed areas for new human settlements. The highest CF values for these municipalities are correlated with the planned development of the residential areas designated in the study. Thus, it can be concluded that the future spatial policy focuses on the development of residential areas in those municipalities where growth patterns have already been observed.
It also indicates that the phenomenon of urban sprawl would intensify. The differences in CF in alternative scenarios in each municipality arise from natural conditions and verified spatial conflicts between environmental zones and planned residential areas designed within studies.
The analysis also showed some limitations. The reduction of BC was noted especially for Scenario No. Such a result could be explained by the process of data blending. The data preparation for a given scenario based is on the planned land use defined in studies of land use conditions and directions and the current land use from CLC Areas, where housing areas were planned to be built within environmental zones, have been attributed to the current land use with CLC Thus, the validity of data should be assured, which would eliminate the abnormalities in results, as mentioned biocapacity decreasing after blending planned land-use data with current land use from CLC some investments were already realized even tough were not designed within the study.
A few limitations of the approach used to identify potential areas of the future human settlement development, in general, might be identified. One of them could be connected with data availability and accuracy. The research requires data acquisition and preparation, especially spatial data, which are a basis for analysis conducting and scenario building. Some of the data could not be available as spatial data; thus, there would be required data generation vectorization of data, geodatabase preparation, and topology validation.
Spatial data representing land use should be assigned to land-use types defined in NFA, then reassignment into planned land use according to spatial plan, as well as blended according to environmental zones. Therefore, the analysis conducting requires also a high level of skills from an analyst. Moreover, the food consumption, or other data, could represent the average information, available only at the national or regional level.
Therefore, the information could not represent the actual lifestyle archetypes of residents living in a given area. Except for food consumption, there could appear a problem with the availability of data regards CO 2 emission connected with electricity production.
In the case of this research, information was available in the open report available at the website of the main supplier providing electricity in the study area, which could not be available in the case of other cities or suburban zones. Some of the data could not be easily available from municipalities or companies, but as the experience of other cities shows, the good cooperation between municipalities, companies, and researchers could result in well-provided assessment at the local level.
The goal of the GCAP is the reduction of the footprint of Vancouver's residents created based on the local dataset City of Vancouver, The well-modeled scenarios would allow to evaluate current and model future land-use policy Malek et al. The application of such solutions allows national, regional and local economies to adapt to climate change and protect various sectors of the national economy from the effects of climate change, such as agriculture Sojka et al.
This research could be applicable in other suburban zones with the same or different land-use and socio-demographic dynamics.
The approach could be changed according to land-use conditions of a given area, i. The assumptions undertaken for assessment may also base on the vulnerable areas to natural hazards i.
Therefore, the proposed approach would allow to add or delete variables in order to reflect local socio-environmental conditions. Furthermore, the approach could be applied also in case of a lack of designated areas for the development of new residential areas according to planning documents. The use of environmental zones in the ECC assessment could be preceded or implemented to appraise the best location for residential development based on such features as elevation, slopes, the proximity of rivers or protected areas, etc.
The implementation of environmental zones together with the ECC approach would support a more sustainable development of the city Kazak, On the one hand, it would allow the allocation of land use for housing purposes by combining the planned allocation of land use in the planning documents with ecological zones, and on the other the quantification of ECC using BC and CF, as well as the surface of natural areas needed for the assimilation of humanity CF.
The implementation of environmental carrying capacity together with environmental zones would allow to increase the biodiversity and natural potential of the area, as well as decrease the human impact on the environment. The implementation of environmental zones for spatial management process could also be a base for spatial conflict verification, which could be understood as a designation of new residential areas on areas providing ecosystem services as good-quality soils, areas of nature protection forms or within their buffer zones or on areas vulnerable to flood.
Such spatial decision could decrease the natural potential of an area and reduce the quality of life of residents. Some of the data can be obtained by contacting the authors.
SS: resources, writing—review and editing, visualization, and supervision. JK: resources, writing—review and editing, supervision, and funding acquisition. All authors: contributed to the article and approved the submitted version. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. We would like to thank Global Footprint Network, especially David Lin, for data sharing, all guidelines and previous cooperation which allowed to realize our following research as research provided to Frontiers.
Baabou, W. The ecological footprint of mediterranean cities: awareness creation and policy implications. Policy 69, 94— Scieki oczyszczone w ciagu roku. Treatment of municipal sewage. Sewage treated during the year. Discharged per capita]. Odpady komunalne. Odpady zebrane selektywnie w ciagu roku [Condition and environmental protection. Municipal waste. Wastes collected separately during the year]. Zmieszane odpady zebrane w ciagu roku z gospodarstw domowych [Condition and environmental protection.
Mixed waste collected during the year from households]. Vehicles by type of fuel used]. Zuzycie wody, energii elektrycznej oraz gazu w gospodarstwach domowych [Consumption of water, electricity and gas in households]. Barredo, I. Budihardjo, S. The ecological footprint analysis for assessing carrying capacity of industrial zone in semarang.
Caro, D. Carbon footprint. Choi, H. Sustainability Spatial conflicts: analyzing a burden created by differing land use. Acta Geogr. City of Vancouver A Renewable City. Part Two: Clift, R. The challenges of applying planetary boundaries as a basis for strategic decision-making in companies with global supply chains. Sustainability 9, 1— Copernicus Land Monitoring Service DellaSala, D. Global change. Furmankiewicz, M. Land-use conflicts in the sudetes, Poland. IOP Conf. Galli, A. Physical limits to resource access and utilisation and their economic implications in mediterranean economies.
Policy 51, — Physical limits to resource access and utilisation and their economic implications in Mediterranean economies. Social innovation challenges]. Global Footprint Network a. Global Footprint Network b. Sustainable Development. Human Development Index and Ecological Footprint Budzety gospodarstw domowych w r.
Warszawa [Warsaw] Available online at: Tabl. Hoekstra, A. Enschede, the Netherlands. Hofstrand, D. Liquid Fuel Measurements and Conversions. Available online at: www. Integrative assessment of land use conflicts. Sustainability 10, 1— Juhrich, K.
CO 2 Emission factors for fossil fuels. Jung, C. But that was then. As Nordhaus points out, population has grown dramatically from less than a billion in to 7. No previous society was able to support so many people at such a high level of amenity.
Science and technology usually glean most of the credit, and they deserve their share. But sheer energy—the bulk of it from fossil fuels—has been at least as important a factor. With lots of cheap energy, we were able to extract raw materials faster and in greater quantities, transport them further, and transform them through industrial processes into a breathtaking array of goods—including fertilizers, pesticides, and antibiotics, all of which tended to reduce human death rates.
But there was still another essential factor in our success: nature itself. Using science, technology, and cheap energy, we expanded farmlands, chain-sawed forests, exploited fisheries, mined minerals, pumped oil, and flattened mountains for their buried coal.
And we did these things in a way that was not remotely sustainable. By harvesting renewable resources faster than they could regrow, by using non-renewable resources that could not be recycled, and by choking environments with industrial wastes, we were borrowing from future generations and from other species. But careful analysis of decoupling to date shows that most is attributable to accounting error.
It is true that some past warnings about the consequences of overpopulation and overconsumption, framed as forecasts, proved wrong. He failed to foresee industrial agriculture. Paul Ehrlich thought rapid population growth would lead to catastrophe in the s, but he failed to anticipate the impacts of globalization and debt—which enables us to consume now and pay later. Yet cornucopian economists who perceive no problem in the expectation of endless growth on a finite planet likewise failed to foresee climate change, the exponential increase in extinction rates primarily as a result of human-caused habitat degradation, the collapse of fisheries from overfishing, and much, much more.
How can we judge whether cornucopians, or so-called Malthusians, will be right in the long run? One way would be to keep a running account of key biophysical factors on which the prospering of our species depends.
If an alarm bell sounds for any of those key factors, we should sit up and pay attention. Nonetheless, environmental scientists have, for decades, applied the concept to human societies with a claimed precision that belies its nebulous nature. The ecologist William Vogt was the first to do so in the s, predicting that overuse of agricultural land would lead to soil depletion and then catastrophe.
But all hold the same neo-Malthusian view of human fertility and consumption. From the 18th-century arguments of Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus onwards, prophets of environmental doom have imagined that in response to abundance, humans would respond with more — more children and more consumption. Like protozoa or fruit flies, we keep breeding and keep consuming until the resources that allow continuing growth are exhausted.
In reality, human fertility and consumption work nothing like this. Affluence and modernisation bring falling, not rising fertility rates.
As our material circumstances improve, we have fewer children, not more. The explosion of human population over the past years has not been a result of rising fertility rates but rather falling mortality rates. With better public health, nutrition, physical infrastructure and public safety we live much longer.
Today, in the United States, Europe, Japan, much of Latin America, even parts of India, fertility rates are below replacement, ie the average number of children born per woman is below two. Much of the rest of the world will likely follow suit over the next few decades. As a result, most demographers project that the human population will peak, and then begin a slow decline, in some cases before the end of this century.
As many now acknowledge, our social biology might not function like protozoa, but capitalism does. It cannot survive without endless growth of material consumption. T here is no particularly well-established basis for this claim and plenty of evidence to the contrary.
The long-term trend in market economies has been towards slower and less resource-intensive growth. Growth in per-capita consumption rises dramatically as people transition from rural agrarian economies to modern industrial economies.
But then it tails off. Today, western Europe and the US struggle to maintain 2 per cent annual growth. The composition of affluent economies changes as well. Manufacturing once accounted for 20 per cent or more of economic output and employment in most developed economies.
Today, it is as low as 10 per cent in some, with the vast majority of economic output coming from knowledge and service sectors with significantly lower material and energy intensities. For decades, each increment of economic growth in developed economies has brought lower resource and energy use than the last. Few of us need or want to consume more than 3, calories or so a day or live in a 5,square-foot house.
0コメント